Why Ukraine Must Win

General Hodges on Deterrence, Defense, and the Future of the Free World

Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who led U.S. Army Europe from 2014 to 2017, believes the West is dangerously underestimating the stakes of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In a sweeping critique of current Western strategy, he argues that the United States and its allies have failed to grasp the full scope of the threat—and that only a decisive Ukrainian victory can restore global stability.

Despite repeated fears, Russia has not used nuclear weapons. Hodges believes this is no accident. He argues that the Kremlin gains more from the threat of nuclear use than from actual deployment. The mere possibility has paralyzed Western resolve, leading to what he calls “self-deterrence”—a reluctance to fully commit to Ukraine’s defense. This hesitation, he warns, sends a dangerous message not only to Russia but also to other authoritarian regimes like China, Iran, and North Korea.

Even if Russia were to consider using a tactical nuclear weapon, Hodges insists there is no battlefield scenario in Ukraine where such a weapon would provide a meaningful military advantage. The idea that a nuclear strike could create a breakthrough for Russian forces, he says, is a relic of Cold War doctrine. Back then, the Soviet military had the training, equipment, and doctrine to operate in a contaminated environment and exploit the chaos of a nuclear detonation. Today’s Russian forces do not. They lack the mobility, coordination, and logistical sophistication to capitalize on such a scenario. A nuclear strike would create devastation, but not strategic gain. It would isolate Russia globally, provoke catastrophic retaliation, and still fail to deliver a decisive outcome. For the United States—the world’s most powerful nuclear deterrent—to back down in response to a single tactical weapon is not only unthinkable, it is strategically impossible. Such a retreat would shatter global confidence in American resolve and embolden every adversary who believes nuclear coercion can succeed.